Monday, February 9, 2009

Car brands for sale, but who's buying?

Depression-era conditions in the auto industry means lots of assets for sale. More brands may change hands than at any time since the late 1980s. Trouble is, nobody seems to have the interest - or the equity - to make a deal.

Fiat got the closest thing to a free lunch when it grabbed 35% of Chrysler in exchange for its intellectual assets. No cash changed hands.

But other Western automakers are leery of linkups because so many of the past ones have blown up in their faces. That leaves car companies from developing nations like China and India, who haven't been chastened by experience and presumably still have a few nickels to rub together.

But none of the Chinese manufacturers have shown any interest in growing through acquisition, unless it involves another Chinese company. And among India's automakers, Tata presumably has its hands full, having taken Jaguar and Land Rover off Ford's hands.

That leaves local rival Mahindra as the default buyer for all of the West's devalued automotive assets. That's a lot for anybody to swallow, especially this former tractor manufacturer.

The brands up for sale, in alphabetical order:

Hummer: General Motors President and Chief Operating Officer Fritz Henderson has said that the sale of the Hummer brand is on an "urgent basis." He made the statement in India possibly to stir up some interest, though Mahindra has officially denied having any.

When he was in China, Henderson pitched some additional prospective buyers there as well. "If any Chinese companies are interested in buying Hummer, it will be certainly an option for us to look at," he said. "We need to be open to all ideas."

If Henderson has been to Russia, his remarks didn't become public but Russian automakers have also been rumored as Hummer buyers - at least until oil prices tanked and the Russian economy cratered.

Jeep: Chrysler insists that conditions attached to its government-guaranteed loan, as well as the existence of a new shareholder in Fiat, make it impossible for it to sell an individual brand like Jeep. But nobody has stepped forward to test its resolve by making an offer.

Everything, they say, has a price, and given Chrysler's current predicament, the price for Jeep could be cheap. Among the potential buyers whose names have surfaced in the press: Mahindra.

Saab: GM has been in talks to sell its struggling Swedish brand Saab since it was approached two or three months ago by an investor, GM Europe chief Carl-Peter Forster said in January.

The name of the investor hasn't surfaced, but the Indians are in the mix again. Forster said the Ford Motor disposal of Jaguar and Land Rover to Tata Motors could serve as a model for a divestiture.

One possible buyer is the Swedish government but GM may wind up paying it to take Saab off its hands. The brand has been losing money since GM bought it.

Saturn: The drama over Saturn's future intensified in January when dealers at a national convention in New Orleans were left in the dark about what will happen next. The only official statement from GM is that it is going to "explore alternatives for the brand" that has been unprofitable since its inception.

Saturn dealers were quoted in Automotive News as speculating "if an Indian or Chinese automaker might try to take over the brand or if such an option is even realistic." But perhaps significantly, no buyers' names have surfaced in the media.

Viper: While Viper is small - only about 1,000 of the V-10 powered sports cars are sold every year - it seems to have attracted the most buyer interest.

Chrysler recently said three buyers had expressed interest, and it was conducting due diligence.

Such a small operation wouldn't produce much in the way of return for Chrysler but it would relieve its management, which has been thinned by buyouts and layoffs, from an operational responsibility.

Volvo: Ford CEO Alan Mulally, who dithered for more than two years over whether to keep Volvo or sell it, has finally made up his mind.

Ford is reported to have met with representatives from leading investment banks in London to discuss Volvo's sale for $3 billion to $4 billion. Ford paid $6.45 billion when it bought Volvo in 1989.

Volvo, which has a strong brand, decent sales and often makes money, may actually be worth something. BMW thought long and hard about buying Volvo in 1997 before finally backing away.

BMW should have known better. It suffered mightily during its brief ownership of England's Rover in the 1990s. Like nearly all acquisitions made in the last 20 years, it blew up in the buyer's face. The message for anybody considering any one of the brands up for sale today is "caveat emptor."



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